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| Song or Adriano in defence? Marc Bartra? Cesc or Iniesta? Questions remain for Tito Vilanova |
ALL KICK OFF TIMES CET
Saturday:
Málaga v Rayo Vallecano (16:00)
Barcelona v Celta Vigo (18:00)
Real Madrid v Zaragoza (20:00)
Valencia v Atlético Madrid (22:00)
Take a look at our extensive list of players absent through injury, suspension, and loan contract issues in our previous post.
Málaga v Rayo Vallecano
MÁLAGA
Málaga naturally had a touch of fatigue against a rejuvenated Espanyol side last weekend. As such, the scoreless draw was a good result for both teams. They’ve got a full deck to choose from in the attacking line, save for long term absentee Julio Baptista who is edging back towards fitness. But with those in situ performing so well this season, he’ll have his work cut regaining a place when he comes back.
The excellent Nacho Real misses out at left back, where the attack-minded Eliseu can slot in. It’s still touch and go with Toulalan, although the emergence of Ignacio Camacho means he’s the most important man in that defensive midfield zone.
Across all competitions, their defence has been excellent- 5 clean sheets from 5 in European games, and another 5 from 10 in La Liga. A depleted selection shipped 3 in their midweek Copa del Rey win at Cacereno, but that’s of no real relevance here.
RAYO:.
Rayo overall have made a decent start to the season, with some encouraging performances. They’ve lost 5 of their last 6 games, but that fact is somewhat skewered considering they’ve faced both Real (who they gave a really could game to) and last week Barcelona. Their approach was commendable in pressing high early on and looking to attack Tito Vilanova’s side, and for the first half an hour they looked impressive. But the first two concessions meant they were never going to get back into that one.
This of course is another big ask, and the hosts will be fresh having sent out a second string in the Copa del Rey. Rayo also opted for wholesale changes in their own first leg 1-0 reversal at Las Palmas, which won’t have perturbed them too much.
They will however be without Jordi Amat (suspended) and Rubén, because of a loan stipulation, which could be a key factor here. Manuel Arena is injured, not a regular. Labaka is back from suspension, and should start here.
It’s doubtful Rayo will press so again, and although there has been speculation that they might return to three man defence they’ve tried with some moments of success at times, a flat back four seem more likely.
Summary:
Rayo’s defence has been porous all season whatever system they’ve opted for. Their form on the road has been shocking going back to last season, where they’ve lost 11 from their last 12. For Málaga’s recent home record those figures are reversed where they’ve won 5 from 6. Their form, and miserly defence across all competitions (and at home) means that anything other than a Málaga win is unthinkable, and it’s been a long time since they last lost to today’s visitors.
Probable teams:
Málaga
Caballero; Eliseu, Gámez, Demichelis, Weligton, Eliseu; Camacho, Toulalan/Iturra; Portillo, Isco, Joaquín; Saviola
Rayo:
Cobeño/Giménez; Tito, Labaka, Rodri, Casado; Javi Fuego; Carlos, Chori Domiguez/Leo, Piti; Delisabic
Barcelona v Celta Vigo
BARCELONA
An impressive if routine 5-0 victory over a Rayo side who really gave it a go at times last time out, and Tito Vilanova well have been content with the defence overall and the cleansheat.
Dani Alves is back and fit for selection after a 4 week layoff, but the big question is will he walk right back into the first 11 where Martín Montoya has excelled. Having gotten his break, he’s excelled. Not just in the defensive side where his positioning has been superb and his willingness to come narrow to make a back three at times, but in those forward forays too.
Much in the manner in which Dani Alves at his best benefited from the balance offered on the other side by Eric Abidal, there’s a case to be made that the youngster similarly benefits the rampaging Jordi Alba. All of which leaves Tito with a dilemma.
The defence is starting to improve, and with Mascherano back from suspension, Alex Song might well partner him there again. Marc Batra, of course is another options, despite those training ground rumours. It would be harsh to see Adriano, who’s performed admirably drop-out.
After two stunning performances against Depor and Rayo, Cesc Fábregas should keep his place, you would think, though Iniesta is now recovered from his niggling injuries and fatigue. Perhaps though, given that Cesc played a full game midweek in the Copa de Rey might influence Tito’s selection in Iniesta’s favour.
87% of Barcelona’s last 15 league goals have come from that Cesc - Messi link-up.
David Villa was amongst the goals at Rayo, and with Sánchez getting the nod midweek, we should see the MVP of Messi, Villa, & Pedro seen at Vallecas for the first time since Villa’s horrific leg break last December start again here.
Celta
Celta were excellent in the opening 45 minutes of last week’s 1-1 derby draw against Depor at Balaídos, and even after Gustavo Cabral’s sending of shortly after half time still looked the more likely side to score. They are a team who have been improving all the time.
No notable injury worries, but of course Cabral will be a big miss in defence. Michael Krohn-Dehli has been one of the revelations of the season in the league, and has a real eye for an assist. After a difficult start, Iago Aspas, last season’s top scorer has found his form, with some important assists and retaining that eye for a goal.
Underage Spain starlet Hugo Mallo at right back was superb in the promotion season, along with rightback Roberto Lago. Both have made the step up seamlessly.
They made Real labour to a 2-0 victory at the Bernabéu a fortnight ago, and even caused Real moments of real danger on quick breaks but couldn’t get it right in the final third often enough. Real’s midfield that day was porous though, and with with Barcelona at full strength there this is not likely to be a profitable avenue of attack.
Paco Herrera is likely to switch to the same 4-3-3 that he used in that game. Jonathan Vila or Samuel will step in for the suspended Cabral:
Summary:
It’s entirely possibly that Celta will be every bit as obdurate in defence and quick to break intelligently as they did against. As alluded to above, a different point of attack will be needed here, but they have players to cause danger in wide areas. Barcelona’s defensive selection matters hugely in this context. Tito Vilanova will want to build on last week’s clean sheet. Celta can keep this one tight, but an early goal could see them endure a difficult evening. Goals in each half would be a safe call, as would Barça +2.5 but punting on a draw at half-time with a home win F/T while a riskier option is a value option.
Probable Teams:
Barcelona:
Valdés; Montoya, Song/Adriano, Mascherano, Alba; Xavi, Busquets, Fábregas; Villa, Messi. Pedro
Celta:
Varas; Lago, Vila/Samuel, Tuñez, Mallo; Bustos, Alex López, Oubiña; A Fernández, Iago Aspas, Krohn-Dehli
Real Madrid v Zaragoza
Real’s 5-0 shellacking at Mallorca was another of their routine 5-0s, but all the more impressive given that they struggled badly at the Iberostar last season, second best for large stretches and ultimately benefitting from terrible refereeing decisions to win 2-1. Mallorca are a much better team this season, making this result all the more impressive.
News early today broke that Álvaro Arbeloa is fit for selection, where he will probably come in at left back. Neither Michael Essien nor Sergio Ramos trained yesterday, but both will participate here. With Khedira still not ready, Essien will move to midfield, alongside Modric due to Xabi Alonso’s suspension. Ramos will retain his berth on the right of defence, meaning another run-out for the excellent Raphael Varrane in central defence alongside Pepe
Mourinho has stated that all those rested in the midweek Copa del Rey over Alcoyano will return here, giving Higuaín further chance to cement his place as a first choice number 9. Mourinho also noted that no players would be held back for the midweek European clash with Dortmund.
Zaragoza have confounded expectations this term, especially after a sluggish start where they playing some awful stuff. It was lucky like another long season for the Aragonese side, but the side has gelled, the performances and results have improved.
They go into this injury and suspension free. That should see them start with their usual XI, though it’s a tight call in the heart of the defence between Glen Looven and previous incumbent Javier Paredes there.
They have tightened up and improved beyond all recognition as a team, where Hélder Portiga’s eye for goal and the excellent work done in midfield by Apoño, along with last season’s hero Roberto in goal have played a huge part in their upturn in fortunes. They now sit ninth, and are picking in the points early this time round- a stark contrast with last term.
Summary
Real are on a roll again, scoring for fun; basically, the Real of last season. And they are looking more like them too. Despite ongoing absentees, they now have a back four of players in their natural positions, and all are individually excellent. With last season’s line of 3 in place behind a free-scoring Gonzalo Higuaín, their earlier travails seem a distant memory.
Zaragoza have tightened up and improved beyond all recognition as a team. Hélder Portiga’s eye for goal and the excellent work done in midfield by Apoño, along with Monañes and Zucculini’s wing play and last season’s hero Roberto in goal have played a huge part in their upturn in fortunes. They now sit ninth, and are picking in the points early this time round- a stark contrast with last term. But this will be a step too for Manolo Jiménez’ side.
Real to win at half-time and full-time, and to win with a 2.5 handicap look pretty safe calls for betting.
Probable Teams
Real Madrid:
Casillas; Arbeloa, Varane, Pepe, Ramos; Essien, Alonso; Di Maria, Ozil, Cristiano Ronaldo; Higuaín
Zaragoza
Roberto; Sapunaru, González, Paredes, Abraham; Apoño, Movila; Zucculini, Victor Rodriguez, Montañés; Hélder Postiga
Valencia v Atlético Madrid’s featured preview of the day will follow tomorrow
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